What is Variance and how to manage it?
Variance is a fundamental concept in poker that every player needs to understand to manage their expectations and improve their mental game. While poker is primarily a game of skill, luck, and variance also play significant roles in both the short and the long term. Let's dive in and see what variance means in poker, how it affects your results, and how to manage it effectively.
Variance refers to the natural fluctuations in outcomes that occur due to the element of chance in poker. It represents the ups and downs of winning and losing that even the most skilled players experience over time. In simple terms, variance is the difference between the expected long-term results of a strategy and the short-term results that occur due to luck.
1. The Role of Luck in Poker
While poker is primarily a skill-based game, luck still plays a significant role in the short term. This is where variance comes into play. Even the best players will experience losing streaks due to bad beats, cooler hands, or just a run of bad luck.
Example: Imagine you go all-in with pocket Aces against pocket Kings. Statistically, you are an 82% favorite to win the hand. However, there is still an 18% chance that you will lose. Over the long run, you will win 82% of the time, but in the short term, you might lose several times in a row due to variance.
2. Long-Term Skill vs. Short-Term Variance
Variance causes so that even a highly skilled player can lose to a less skilled player over a small sample of hands. However, over a large number of hands, skill becomes the dominant factor, and variance evens out.
Example: A skilled player might win 55% of their sessions and lose 45% due to variance. Over a long enough timeline, their edge becomes apparent, but in the short term, anything can happen.
Winning Streaks: During periods of positive variance, players might experience extended winning streaks where they seem unbeatable. While these streaks are enjoyable, they can lead to overconfidence and poor decision-making if players attribute their success solely to skill rather than understanding the role of luck.
Losing Streaks: Conversely, negative variance can lead to losing streaks, even when a player is making the correct decisions. This can be frustrating and emotionally challenging, leading to tilt or a lack of confidence in one’s abilities.
Why It Matters: Variance can significantly impact a player’s emotional state and mental game. Understanding variance helps manage expectations and reduces the emotional toll of the game.
How to Manage Emotional Impact:
Why It Matters: Proper bankroll management is crucial to withstand the swings of variance. Players need to have enough of a bankroll to survive downswings and continue playing.
How to Do It:
Why It Matters: Playing a tighter range of starting hands reduces the chances of getting into marginal situations where variance can have a significant impact.
How to Do It:
Why It Matters: Strong post-flop skills help you minimize losses and maximize gains, reducing the impact of variance.
How to Do It:
Why It Matters: Diversifying the types of games you play (e.g., cash games, tournaments, sit-and-go's) can help mitigate the effects of variance.
How to Do It:
Why It Matters: The law of large numbers states that over a large enough sample size, actual results will converge with expected results. In poker, this means that while you might experience swings in the short term due to variance, your true skill level will determine your long-term success.
Example: A player with a 55% win rate will not win exactly 55 out of every 100 sessions, but over thousands of sessions, their win rate will average out to around 55%.
Variance is an inherent part of poker that adds excitement and unpredictability to the game. While it can lead to short-term swings, understanding and managing variance is crucial for long-term success. By employing sound bankroll management, improving your strategy, and maintaining emotional control, you can navigate the ups and downs of variance and achieve consistent results at the poker table.
What Is Variance in Poker?
Variance refers to the natural fluctuations in outcomes that occur due to the element of chance in poker. It represents the ups and downs of winning and losing that even the most skilled players experience over time. In simple terms, variance is the difference between the expected long-term results of a strategy and the short-term results that occur due to luck.
Why Does Variance Matter?
1. The Role of Luck in Poker
While poker is primarily a skill-based game, luck still plays a significant role in the short term. This is where variance comes into play. Even the best players will experience losing streaks due to bad beats, cooler hands, or just a run of bad luck.
Example: Imagine you go all-in with pocket Aces against pocket Kings. Statistically, you are an 82% favorite to win the hand. However, there is still an 18% chance that you will lose. Over the long run, you will win 82% of the time, but in the short term, you might lose several times in a row due to variance.
2. Long-Term Skill vs. Short-Term Variance
Variance causes so that even a highly skilled player can lose to a less skilled player over a small sample of hands. However, over a large number of hands, skill becomes the dominant factor, and variance evens out.
Example: A skilled player might win 55% of their sessions and lose 45% due to variance. Over a long enough timeline, their edge becomes apparent, but in the short term, anything can happen.
How Variance Affects Your Poker Game
1. Winning and Losing Streaks
Winning Streaks: During periods of positive variance, players might experience extended winning streaks where they seem unbeatable. While these streaks are enjoyable, they can lead to overconfidence and poor decision-making if players attribute their success solely to skill rather than understanding the role of luck.
Losing Streaks: Conversely, negative variance can lead to losing streaks, even when a player is making the correct decisions. This can be frustrating and emotionally challenging, leading to tilt or a lack of confidence in one’s abilities.
2. Emotional Impact of Variance
Why It Matters: Variance can significantly impact a player’s emotional state and mental game. Understanding variance helps manage expectations and reduces the emotional toll of the game.
How to Manage Emotional Impact:
- Stay Objective: Recognize that variance is a natural part of poker and does not necessarily reflect your skill level.
- Practice Emotional Control: Techniques like mindfulness, meditation, and taking breaks can help maintain composure during swings.
3. Bankroll Management and Variance
Why It Matters: Proper bankroll management is crucial to withstand the swings of variance. Players need to have enough of a bankroll to survive downswings and continue playing.
How to Do It:
- Set a Bankroll Limit: A good rule of thumb is to have at least 20-30 buy-ins for the stakes you are playing. This provides a buffer to handle negative variance.
- Move Down in Stakes: If your bankroll takes a significant hit, consider moving down in stakes to reduce risk and rebuild.
Strategies to Mitigate Variance
1. Play Tighter Starting Hands
Why It Matters: Playing a tighter range of starting hands reduces the chances of getting into marginal situations where variance can have a significant impact.
How to Do It:
- Focus on Premium Hands: Stick to playing strong hands like high pairs and suited connectors, especially in early positions.
- Avoid Marginal Spots: Reduce the number of speculative hands you play, particularly in situations where you are out of position.
2. Improve Your Post-Flop Play
Why It Matters: Strong post-flop skills help you minimize losses and maximize gains, reducing the impact of variance.
How to Do It:
- Read the Board and Opponents: Develop your ability to read board textures and opponents’ tendencies to make better decisions.
- Control the Pot Size: Use bet sizing to control the pot size, especially when holding marginal hands or drawing hands.
3. Diversify Your Game Selection
Why It Matters: Diversifying the types of games you play (e.g., cash games, tournaments, sit-and-go's) can help mitigate the effects of variance.
How to Do It:
- Mix Up Your Game Types: Play a combination of cash games and tournaments to balance the variance associated with each format.
- Choose Games Wisely: Select games where you have a skill advantage over your opponents to reduce variance impact.
The Long-Term Perspective
Understanding the Law of Large Numbers
Why It Matters: The law of large numbers states that over a large enough sample size, actual results will converge with expected results. In poker, this means that while you might experience swings in the short term due to variance, your true skill level will determine your long-term success.
Example: A player with a 55% win rate will not win exactly 55 out of every 100 sessions, but over thousands of sessions, their win rate will average out to around 55%.
Conclusion
Variance is an inherent part of poker that adds excitement and unpredictability to the game. While it can lead to short-term swings, understanding and managing variance is crucial for long-term success. By employing sound bankroll management, improving your strategy, and maintaining emotional control, you can navigate the ups and downs of variance and achieve consistent results at the poker table.
